In Reply to: Using your methodology the chances of pubs retaining both seats posted by Dr.J on September 02, 2026 at 20:28:45
You are pretty stupid when it comes to math.
The original poster was talking about winning every seat the Dems led in and having a 52 to 48 majority. The odds of that are very tiny unless the polls are incorrect.
You example of "The difference between the Democrats gaining both seats and the Republicans retaining either seat is negligible - .36 and .40." is pointless in this scenario.
The current polling picture is roughly:
State Democratic lead Rough chance Dem wins*
Georgia +9 ~80–90%
North Carolina +9 ~80–90%
Maine +8 ~75–85%
Minnesota +5 ~65–75%
Ohio +5 ~65–75%
Michigan +4 ~60–70%
New Hampshire +3 ~55–65%
Alaska +2 ~52–60%
Texas +1–2 ~52–58%
For example, suppose the nine races averaged:
85% × 85% × 80% × 70% × 70% × 65% × 60% × 56% × 55%
That gives only about 6%.
If the polls are correct, we have a 1 in 20 shot of running the table. Perhaps you should study more before your throw your ignorant shade.
If the Dems run the table, it's because the polls were wrong and the Dem lead is much larger than they are measuring.