How bad was the polling error

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Posted by mh on November 12, 2026 at 13:44:22

Claude-produced chart on estimated polling error by cycle to put 2026 in context - normal levels in absolute terms but the first pro-R miss of that magnitude since 1998 https://t.co/uGFVchAGOU
— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) (@BrendanNyhan) November 9, 2026

Many pollsters didn't believe the results they were getting and decided they weren't capturing enough Republicans in their polls, so they adjusted their findings.

The result was they missed the magnitude of the wave.

Follow Ups:

Re: How bad was the polling error confused442 19:12:07 11/12/26 (1)
- errata confused442 20:08:02 11/12/26 (0)
Didn't Democrats outperform the polls in 2022? DSCBruin 15:16:13 11/12/26 (4)
- Re: Didn't Democrats outperform the polls in 2022? confused442 19:14:45 11/12/26 (0)
- Nope, not mis-remembering amadbruin 15:27:09 11/12/26 (2)
  - Yeah, 11 missing the vote DSCBruin 16:16:17 11/12/26 (1)
    - But only they will be celebrating amadbruin 18:29:28 11/12/26 (0)

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