In Reply to: How bad was the polling error posted by mh on November 12, 2026 at 13:44:22
In the last Siena/NYT poll, they initially reported a Democratic advantage of roughly +12 (which ultimately turned out to be +13). However, because that was such a historically large margin, they adjusted their reported figure downward to +8.
I remember telling my class that morning that there were essentially two groups of Democratic candidates:
Those polling in the +5 to +6 range, which would translate to approximately 47 Democratic Senate seats.
Those polling in the +10 to +11 range.
If the NYT's raw data is accurate and the actual advantage is closer to +12 or +13, we could be looking at a genuinely historic political moment.
Nate Cohn at The New York Times continues to stand out for his polling analysis. In the last election, he was the only major pollster who showed Trump with a +1 to +2 advantage across the swing states, while most other pollsters appeared to be herding their numbers toward an essentially even race.
Nate Cohen and Nate Silver got nailed by Dems last election for being correct prior to the election. Strangely, Dems never talk about Nate Silver's gambling addiction when he says they are going to destroy.