Here are my projections for 2026.
The House
I expect the Dems to take the house, perhaps by a double-digit margin. Here’s why:
- The GOP currently enjoys a very small margin, and it’s common for the party holding the White House to lose seats in Congress. I expect that trend to continue.
- I think Dems will outperform their 2024 numbers, mainly because opposition to Trump is growing (the Democratic gains may simply reflect disdain for the GOP). Those trends will amplify over time as Trump’s tariffs take effect, as inflations grows rapidly, and unemployment rises (these trends have already started and are likely to increase). In addition, voters will notice reduced government services along with numerous hospital closures. By election time, a GOP-led government shutdown may have concluded, but the memory may still be on voters’ minds.
- The aggressive gerrymandering in Texas (and perhaps other places) may backfire on the GOP. The Texas gerrymander plans are based on projections that assume the GOP’s ability to retain more than 50% of the Hispanic vote (as Trump did in 2024), but I believe many of those voters will return to the Democratic Party.
So, I believe the Dems will take the House, probably by 15 seats or more. If the Dems win by 30 seats or more, it may be harbinger of a “Blue Wave,” and may even affect the balance in the Senate. BTW, the largest swing in recent history was in 1994, when Newt Gingrich led the Republicans to a gain of 54 seats in Congress. So, history teaches us that big swings can happen.
The Senate
I do not expect the Dems to win the Senate. Right now, I give them at best a longshot chance of doing so. Key points are as follows:
- The Dems need to pick up four seats to win the Senate.
- The Dems will be defending only 13 seats, while the Republicans will be defending 24 seats. However, many of those Republican seats are in strongly Republican states.
- Dems must defend the following battlegrounds
o Georgia (Jon Ossoff needed a special runoff election to win in 2021)
o New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen is not seeking re-election)
o Michigan (Gary Peters is not seeking re-election)
- Opportunities for pick-ups include
o North Carolina
o Maine
o Ohio (former Senator Sherrod Brown is attempting a comeback)
o Texas (yeah, Texas again….)
If the Dems take back the Senate, it would probably be part of a “Blue Wave.” I’m not expecting that… yet.
So, I conclude that the Dems will have the House, but not the Senate.
And then things get interesting. With a simple majority, the House could easily vote to impeach Trump. And not just once - the House could vote to impeach him serially, on each type of violation. This would put the Republican senators on record to defend each of the following policies:
- Masked government agents snatching people off the streets and sending them to hellhole jails, thousands of miles away. Some of those people are parents, leaving the children without their parents.
- De-funding and destroying government programs that had been properly funded by Congress.
- Issuing pardons to convicted criminals (not just the insurrectionists, but the drug-smuggler crypto thief, etc.)
- Using the power of the US government to punish perceived rivals or enemies. Examples include James Comey: the media (Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert); Academia; Law Firms; and more.
o Add Note: by 2026, we may even have evidence that Trump attempted to turn the US Armed Forces into his personal tool to be used against perceived enemies (as I write this, I have no idea why Pete Hegseth ordered all high-ranking officers to a sudden meeting. I hope his purpose is in our national interests, but right now, who knows… ?)
- The ongoing cover-up of the Jeffrey Epstein files (yes, even this...)
One by one, the House should vote to impeach. And although each impeachment may fail, it would be good to put the evidence in front of the American people and force those GOP senators to defend their choice to defend Trump. And then of course, those pols will face the voters again in 2028 or 2030 or whatever…
…. if we still have a functioning democracy.