In Reply to: The best polling averages yet. posted by mh on September 22, 2026 at 12:04:22
THE GOP POLLED ITS OWN FORT WORTH STRONGHOLD. IT FOUND A 28-POINT COLLAPSE.
The most terrifying poll of the cycle for Republicans wasn’t commissioned by Democrats — it was commissioned by Republicans, about their own turf, and it leaked. An internal GOP survey — conducted September 10–15 by what Quorum Report’s Scott Braddock describes as a reputable Republican pollster working for D.C. trade groups, 600 likely voters, ±3 — measured Texas Senate District 9 in Tarrant County, which Trump carried by 17 points in 2024.
The results, published by Braddock (who noted the judgment call of releasing an internal poll without its full memo):
James Talarico crushing Ken Paxton 52–41.
Gina Hinojosa over Greg Abbott 49–40.
Democrat Vikki Goodwin leading Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick himself.
And Democratic state Sen. Taylor Rehmet — whose January special-election upset flipped the seat for the first time since 1991 — up 14 on his rematch.
Three things make an internal district poll credible: it’s the GOP’s own data, it matches the actual votes cast in January, and it matches every public statewide survey. Braddock’s verdict on what was once America’s biggest Republican urban county: it is collapsing for the GOP before our eyes — driven, he said, by state-level overreach and Trump pushing people over the edge. The emblem of the panic: the Republican challenger has redesigned her yard signs, deleting “TRUMP ENDORSED.”
Even a longtime GOP consultant conceded it could get worse — this poll closed before the party’s Railroad Commission nominee’s racist tirade, the one that has Karl Rove publicly voting for a Democrat.