In Reply to: What the numbers mean... posted by confused442 on April 01, 2026 at 22:32:08
I asked different models for their best guess.
Chatgpt- didn't think this was necessarily an event driven change.
Gemini thought it was a mixture of recent polls, fuel prices, iran, no kings, and inflation.
Claude -
The Trump administration is set to announce tariffs as soon as Thursday (April 2) on drugmakers that haven't struck deals guaranteeing low prices in the US, with rates potentially reaching 100% on imported branded and patented medicines. Bloomberg A draft order obtained by STAT News would impose a 100% tariff on imports of patented medications and their active ingredients, with the announcement possibly coming Thursday. Statnews
This broke around the ~6pm window today (April 1), which would be the timing you noticed. When new tariff news drops — especially something as sweeping as 100% drug tariffs — Kalshi traders rapidly reprice Trump's approval expectations downward, since:
A Pew Research survey released today found that nearly 6-in-10 Americans lack confidence in Trump's trade policy decisions, and 63% express little or no confidence in his tariff handling specifically. Pew Research Center
Trump's net approval among his own 2024 voters dropped 15 points over three weeks in the latest YouGov/Economist poll, with declines tied to military action, a partial government shutdown, and stock market declines. The Hill
As to how sure Claude is -
Honestly, not very sure at all. I should be upfront about that.
Here's what I actually know vs. what I inferred:
What I know: There was breaking news around April 1 about incoming pharma tariffs (100% on branded drugs), and Trump's approval has been trending down generally.