In Reply to: Re: Are markets really this resilient to Trump? posted by russsmith on April 09, 2026 at 14:48:47
What we’ve been seeing in the market is a rotation out of the 7–10 largest mega-cap names and into mid-cap companies.
What’s interesting now is that many of those mega-cap firms look relatively inexpensive. There’s a lot of fear priced in—particularly around AI potentially disrupting their core software businesses—even though many of these same companies are actually leaders and major owners in AI development.
At the same time, even during disruptions like the closure of key shipping routes, revenue projections for these large tech firms have continued to move higher. That combination—rising earnings expectations and compressed valuations—has made their multiples increasingly attractive.
Personally, most of my extra cash is tied up in tuition right now. But if I had more capital to deploy, companies like Microsoft and Amazon would look especially compelling at these levels.
If capital rotates back into the top 7–10 names, it could trigger another strong leg up in the indices—similar to what we saw during the early phase of Trump’s first year in office.
Add to that the potential for three massive public offerings this year—SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—and you have another powerful catalyst.
If even one or two of these come to market at scale, it could reignite a broader sense of exuberance. A wave of high-profile AI and tech IPOs would likely pull capital back into the sector, boost sentiment, and reinforce the narrative that innovation—not disruption—is driving the next leg higher, despite a low GDP number.
On the other side. Now that the market is back to its former highs, there is an estimated 1 in 3 chance of a recession by the experts so I'm trying to figure off whether I sell off into cash or sit on stocks.