In Reply to: Swalwell drops out of governor race posted by DSCBruin on April 12, 2026 at 18:25:09
Here is the latest average of polls:
Hilton (R): 17.0%
Swalwell (D): 13.5%
Bianco (R): 12.0%
Steyer (D): 11.8%
Porter (D): 10.0%
Becerra (D): 3.8%
With Swalwell dropping out, that leaves 13.5% up for grabs. I doubt much, if any, will go to a Republican. If Styer and Porter split it, that gives each of them another 6.2%.
Then the race looks like:
Hilton (R): 17.0%
Steyer (D): 18.0%
Porter (D): 16.2%
Bianco (R): 12.0%
Becerra (D): 3.8%
That puts both Steyer and Porter ahead of Bianco, and eliminates the chance of 2 Repubs emerging from the primary.
Swalwell's vote could get divided in a lot of ways. Some of his voters may stay home. But any way you divide it, leaving the Dems with two major candidates is MUCH better than having three major candidates.
I know some folks here support Becerra, but he doesn't look like a major factor in this race.