WBB: UCLA and UConn may be closer than you think...


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Posted by Born2BBruin on March 09, 2026 at 20:34:13

Since we're in a bit of a dead zone, at least until Thursday, I thought I'd take a look at the question on everyone's mind, "How badly will UConn beat UCLA if they meet again in the NCAA tournament?"

Well, the answer could just be MAYBE not as bad as you think.

Using adjusted efficiency rates from Bart Torvik, I calculated the predicted score of a hypothetical UCLA game against UConn, on a neutral court, such as Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona (site of the Final Four).

UCLA   Adj OE = 133.4, Adj DE = 72.4, Tempo = 66.9
UConn  Adj OE = 127.8, Adj DE = 65.2, Tempo = 71.8

UCLA is a better offensive team than UConn. UConn is a (much) better defensive team than UCLA.

On offense, UCLA has six players rated at 4.0 or more "Points Over Replacement" on Torvik's site compared to only three for UConn.

I don't have the equivalent defensive stats for the Huskies' players but I think everyone here is pretty familiar with what UConn can do on D.

Anyway, in game predicted to have 69 possessions, the Bruins' offense, going against UConn's defense, is predicted to score 68.8 points.

While the Huskies, going against UCLA, are predicted to score 69.3 points.

Yep, just half a point separates the two teams, statistically speaking.

Of course, they don't play the games on paper, or in computeres, and thank goodness for that, but I think it's interesting to consider, that statistically speaking, at least, the two teams are a lot closer that most people probably think they are.


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